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temperatures in Europe are now 50 per cent more likely to occur as a result of anthropogenic climate change (Stott et al. 2004). Precipitation is not the only influence on water availability. Increasing evaporative demand owing to rising temperatures and longer growing seasons could increase crop irrigation requirements globally by between 5 and 20 per cent, or possibly more, by the 2070s or 2080s (Döll 2002; Fisher et al. 2006), but with large Cool version weed leaf mandala full printing low top shoesregional variations—South-East Asian irrigation requirements could increase by 15 per cent (Döll 2002). Regional studies project increasing irrigation demand in the Middle East and North Africa (Abou-Hadid et al. 2003) and potentially 15 per cent increases in irrigation demand in South-East Asia (Arnell et al. 2004; Fisher et al. 2006). However, decreased requirements are projected in China (Tao et al. 2003). Clearly these projections also depend on uncertain changes in precipitation. This reflects the wide range of projections of precipitation change from different climate models (Christensen et al. 2007). The differences in precipitation projections arise for a number of reasons. A key factor is the strong dependence on changes in atmospheric circulation which itself depends on the relative rates of warming in different regions, but there are often a number of factors influencing precipitation change projections in a given

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